Rick Gray
The Valley of the Present
By
Jul 9, 2008 - 10:25:13 AM

I’m starting this late Monday morning – with my deadline hovering nigh – seeking desperately for inspiration from my first cup of coffee.

It won’t be easy.  At the Virginia Shakespeare Festival, we’ve just ended a delightful run of Taming of the Shrew and plunged into the dark heart of rehearsals for Othello, which opens Friday.

After last weekend – rehearsal on the Fourth, two performances Saturday, morning rehearsals, and a final matinee Sunday – I need a nap of Rip Van Winkle proportions.

Not to complain. Acting ain’t exactly chopping cotton – and I wasn’t drafted.  Like most jobs, acting has tough weeks and easy ones.  

It’s just that, after last weekend, the brain isn’t quite up to 828 words of scintillating prose.  
So we’ll see.

In the dressing room, I’ve been passing my offstage time reading the second volume of William Manchester’s The Last Lion­ – a biography of Winston Chuchill’s years in political exile, when he couldn’t persuade his fellow Britons that Hitler was far more dangerous than your average, tinpot dictator.

Manchester isn’t my favorite Churchill biographer.  He’s so partisan that he often underestimates Churchill’s political rivals – which isn’t easy to do.  Even Churchill would, eventually, be more generous.

But Manchester’s a professional writer – not a scholar – and I’ve enjoyed his passages on Churchill’s writing career.  Churchill was never wealthy.  From early adulthood, he wrote to support himself, his family, and his political career.  During the pre-War years, he labored nightly on his four-volume History of the English-Speaking Peoples and a monumental biography of his ancestor, Marlborough.

I’m no Churchill – not even a Manchester – but, as a writer, I’ve found these chapters particularly gratifying.

I’ve also been reminded of the fact – ultimately decisive for the survival of Western civilization – that Churchill was out of power during these critical years.  While lesser men led Britain ever closer to mortal peril, Churchill forced his mind – night after night – to grapple with Marlborough’s wars against the armies of Louis XIV.

And he drew strength and wisdom from his labors.

Other great leaders have done the same.  Any serious student of biography will eventually notice this pattern.

Great leaders – almost without exception – have been students of the past.  And, before reaching the pinnacle of their careers, nearly all of them have spent a period in exile.

Taken together, these two tendencies suggest a remarkable conclusion:  The best preparation for leadership seems to be an early career in practical affairs, followed by a more-or-less lengthy period of study and reflection.

Such a period of exile helps a future leader escape that tendency which I called – in my teaching days – the Valley of the Present.

In every culture – but particularly in one as youth-oriented and media-driven as ours – there’s a tendency to assume that the future will be a more-or-less linear projection of present trends.  

Today’s educators, for example, assume that the future economy will involve more and more of us working in high-tech industries.

Perhaps.

But the student of history would point out that new technologies tend, in time, to reach market saturation.  In the 1920s, for example, the stock market boom was led by RCA – manufacturer of those old, cabinet-sized radios – and Ford.  Both companies prospered – until nearly every American family had a radio and a car.  

Then, reality supervened.  Sure, some folks wanted that latest model car or radio – but most were satisfied with what they had.  Sales plummeted, followed by the leading stocks – and the whole stock market.

In my gut, I have a feeling this will also happen with computers, cell phones, and video gaming.  There are only so many entertainment hours in a day.  In terms of computing power and speed, most of us have already reached a point where enough is enough.

And, in an over-stretched consumer economy, business models reliant on advertising revenues will soon come up against the limits of America’s spending power.

Living forever in the Valley of the Present has its dangers.  

A year ago, GM was still betting on bigger and bigger cars, trucks, and SUVs.  Today, it’s distinctly possible that GM will go the way of the dinosaurs.

In this year’s election – at least for the moment – the dominant issue is the price of gasoline.  But, from the historical perspective, I doubt that will be true in November.
For one thing, oil prices will likely ease a little when the Fed finally nudges interest rates, bolstering the dollar.

For another, ordinary Americans will continue adapting – changing their driving habits as higher gasoline prices become the norm.

Obviously, senators McCain and Obama – engaged in non-stop campaigning – have little time to reflect on such things.  They will study today’s polls, make predictable mistakes – and, next January, one of them will have to eat a lot of foolish words.

Which leads me to this thought:  Perhaps we should demand that every presidential candidate spend a few years out of office – reflecting on the past – before re-entering the ephemeral Valley of the Present.

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