Rick Gray
The Big Shift
By
Jun 18, 2008 - 9:36:03 AM

This week, in California, rather significant events are taking place.  Local clerks’ offices have begun issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.  In the months to come, many thousands of such couples will legally marry. 

And not just Californians.  That’s what makes this story significant.  Massachusetts has been performing same-sex marriages for four years now, but the Bay State will only grant licenses to non-residents whose home states will recognize those licenses.

This limiting condition explains why Boston hasn’t become a sort of alternative Las Vegas.  And why non-resident couples married in Massachusetts haven’t been filing well-financed lawsuits in the courts of the other forty-nine states, demanding that their marriages be recognized.  Massachusetts opened the door to same-sex marriage – but limited the legal impact to one state.

Massachusetts was a trend-setter in 1776 – as was Virginia – but today, the future arrives from the West Coast.  Thus, fittingly, the legal events that will forever redefine marriage in America have come from California.

Under California law, non-residents have long been able to marry.  Now that California’s Supreme Court has recognized the equal rights of gay couples, citizens of any state – including Virginia – can travel to LA, San Francisco, or Palm Springs to obtain a valid marriage license. And fly home to demand recognition of that marriage.

Thus will begin a new series of battles.

There will be lawsuits in state and federal courts.  Eventually, one of these will wind up on the docket of the Supreme Court.  And, for all its conservatism, I doubt the Court will be able to evade the clear sense of Article IV’s “full faith and credit” clause and the Fourteenth Amendment’s “equal protection” clause. 

A Democratic Congress will almost certainly clarify the question by amending or repealing the Federal Defense of Marriage Act.  Regardless of whom we elect in November, our next president won’t be as intransigent on this issue as Mr. Bush.  Barack Obama voted against the act.  John McCain believes that marriage is a matter for state legislation. 

Slowly, but certainly, the walls are coming down.  As they surely should. 

But here’s the thing:  Four years ago, same-sex marriage was a huge issue.  Indeed, state referenda on “defense of marriage” amendments almost certainly re-elected George W. Bush, by mobilizing socially conservative voters who might otherwise have stayed home.

This year, same-sex marriage will scarcely be a blip on the electoral radar screen.  Over the next decade, recognition of same-sex marriage will very probably become accepted, nationwide.

And no one – almost no one – will care. 

That’s the Big Shift. 

Americans are rapidly abandoning their obsession with social agendas, for two reasons.  First, we’ve begun to confront the fact that our nation faces real problems – challenges we can no longer postpone dealing with.

Second, we’re beginning to get over our obsession with magical thinking, the belief – fostered by New Age gurus, old-style evangelists, and, most of all, Hollywood – that mere belief can change the laws of physics, biology, or human nature. 

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Americans have been living in a political dream world – acting as though everything was possible, without cost or consequences – while ignoring problems in need of real-world solutions.

This accounts for our belief that we could march into Kosovo, Afghanistan, or Iraq – establishing peace and democracy without resistance from local interests.  Or the continuing faith of some that we can “do something” about Darfur without incurring a significant body count.

It accounts for our attempt to improve public schools by waving the magic wand of “high-stakes” testing – first at the state level, then through the absurdly misnamed No Child Left Behind Act – diverting billions from the classroom into the administration of new testing regimes.

It accounts for our refusal to take action to curb oil consumption, even as the demand for oil grew overseas – and global climate change reached the critical stage.  

For two decades, while America mired itself ever deeper in military adventures abroad, counterproductive testing regimes in our schools, and extravagant land development policies at home – we’ve diverted ourselves with issues such as abortion, stem-cell research, same-sex marriage, and whether to teach ancient mythology in our science classrooms.

We persuaded ourselves that we could reverse the march of events, or the laws of science, by waving magic wands – legislative, fiscal, or military – changing reality through sheer faith and good intentions.  

Meanwhile, real problems continued to fester.  A mortgage crisis.  Rising energy costs.  Global climate change.  The declining competitiveness of America’s schools.  

The era of magical thinking won’t end all at once.  The entire campaign of Barack Obama appears to be driven by a kind of messianic fervor – a faith that one young, inexperienced, but highly charismatic man can transform our institutions of government.

But the evidence mounts that Americans are ready for a more pragmatic approach.  

As Exhibit A, I would offer the remarkable lack of furor over California’s new marriage law – and the legal ramifications which will surely follow.

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