I , like most Americans, am following the Republican and Democratic primaries, and I have just one word for the whole mess: WOW!

I’ve been alive long enough at this point to remember several presidential elections, and I cannot remember a single one in which things were so much up in the air for both parties at this stage of the process.

The first presidential election I remember well was in 1980. In that election, the Democrats had incumbent president Jimmy Carter as a natural standard bearer.

In 1984, incumbent President Reagan was a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, and in 1988, George H. W. Bush, as Reagan’s vice-president, had the inside track to the Republican nomination.

In 1992, Republican President Bush was the clear favorite on the Republican side, and in 1996, Democratic President Bill Clinton had the same advantage.

In 2000, V.P. Gore had the clear inside track on the Democratic side, and in 2004, incumbent President Bush was the obvious Republican standard bearer.

The interesting thing about all of these is that in each case, the expected front-runner actually won that party’s nomination. It’s also interesting to note that not all of these obvious front-runners went on to win the election, despite the more difficult primary process of their opponents.

But given all that, none of those years compare to 2008. The closest thing to a front-runner on either side of the aisle this year has been Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton, and the gloss faded from that campaign after her loss in Iowa. She came back to win New Hampshire and (as of this writing) Nevada, but Barack Obama has pulled even in national polls, and that race is still very much undecided.

Here’s my take on the process at this point. On the Democratic side, it’s really a two-person race at this point. John Edwards and his ridiculous, populist, "two Americas" agenda is fading fast, and so are the candidacies of Kucinich, Biden, Dodd, and Richardson.

I personally would like to see Obama win the nomination. I disagree with just about everything he stands for, from the War on Terror to abortion, but I would rather see ANYBODY other than Hillary win the nomination. The United States still stands (somewhat) as a bastion of freedom in a world rapidly embracing socialism on every side; that freedom would be seriously threatened with a Hillary presidency.

The problem for Obama, of course, is that Hillary has the entire arsenal of consultants, D.C. insiders, and ex-convicts from her husband’s presidency to assist her. In the end, although I hope for a popular uprising against the status quo and team Clinton, I fear she will win the nomination (which might actually help us conservatives – more on that below).

On the Republican side, things are in even more turmoil. John McCain has suddenly come back to life, having won the New Hampshire primary after looking like his campaign was DOA six months ago.

Huckabee, who surprised everybody in Iowa, seems to be falling back – thankfully – to his natural position amongst the second-tier candidates. Romney has won Michigan and now Nevada, but many Republicans are still concerned with his flip-flopping on issues and the whole "Mormon issue."

Rudy Giuliani, last year’s clear favorite, has nearly disappeared from the radar, as has Fred Thompson, whose candidacy seemed to hold such promise before he actually entered the race. Ron Paul, though a favorite among the college-age (by which I mean, "not yet old enough to really know what the heck they’re doing") Libertarian crowd, is also fading fast.

This race is more difficult to call. I think we can count Huckabee, Paul, and Thompson out – although Thompson would make an excellent choice for VP – leaving McCain, Giuliani, and Romney in the race.

Giuliani has an awful lot of personal weirdness in his past, and he’s too liberal in his views on abortion, gay marriage, illegal immigration, and gun control to excite the conservative base.

Romney looks the part and has won a couple primaries, but Huckabee showed in Iowa how easily his Mormon faith could be turned against him. The conservative Christian base might have big problems with him.

McCain might actually be the guy to beat among the Republicans. He has some obstacles to overcome – his moronic pro-amnesty stand toward illegal immigration for one – but he almost feels like the "safest" Republican candidate at this point.

As far as the general election goes, the Republicans have an edge regardless of who the Democrats nominate, because both Hillary and Obama have glaring weaknesses. Hillary might be easier to beat than Obama.

Elections are won by a candidate energizing his or her base; I don’t think any of the Republicans can do this, but Hillary can do it for them. I think that if Hillary wins the Democratic nomination, we’ll see hundreds of thousands of Americans who haven’t voted in years – perhaps decades – go to the polls to vote against her.

If Obama wins, on the other hand, all of those things that hurt him now (inexperience, youth, grand ideas with little details) will be exaggerated by his Republican opponent – especially if it’s Giuliani or McCain.

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out over the next few months. We’ll soon know how insightful my views are; I’ll either be gloating or hanging my head by mid-summer. I’ll keep you posted as to which it is!