It is one of the final scenes in the movie Jaws. Chief Brody is shoveling a mixture of fish parts off the stern of the Orca, in a last ditch effort to attract the killer shark. Suspense builds as the sheriff continues shoveling bait into the water. Without warning, the massive shadow of the killer shark emerges under the water and with great speed, the shark thrusts itself into the boat, baring its massive teeth.
The shock effect of the shark draws parallels to the reaction of many across the globe, as the powerful developments of the Chinese military and the spreading effects of its economy continue to unfold. China has emerged - economically, militarily and technologically - seemingly out of nowhere, and splashed upon the world with frightening speed and presence.
Yet, unlike the sheriff in Jaws, we continue to toss bait off the rear of the ship even though we have now seen the magnitude of this giant entity. What catalyst – what new revelation – will finally drive America’s leaders to wake up? Six recent concerning actions of China seemed to have failed to significantly change the mindset of our government’s top leaders.
1) Will it wake us up when China consistently increases their military budget by double-digit percentages?
On March 4, China announced a 17.8 percent increase over 2006 levels in defense spending. Yet, this large increase is blurred by a lack of transparency. We know that any reported defense spending is no more than one-third of actual spending because it fails to include important sectors such as weapons procurement and research and development. Without transparency, this announcement only raises questions about China’s intentions.
2) Will it wake us up when our own Department of Defense does an about-face on China’s military intentions?
It has not in the past. In 2003, the Department of Defense reported in its People’s Republic of China (PRC) Military Power Report: "While continuing to research and discuss possibilities, China appears to have set aside indefinitely plans to acquire an aircraft carrier."
The Department of Defense would drastically change course reporting in its 2006 PRC Military Power Report that "there were indications last year that China plans to organize a combat air wing for a future aircraft carrier."
Last year, the Chinese were spotted at an air show in Moscow scouting planes that could only be used on aircraft carriers, and only two month ago, President Hu sent a call to a meeting of the delegates to the Communist Party, urging the building of a powerful navy prepared "at any time" for military struggle. And, just this week, a Hong Kong newspaper quoted a senior member of the PRC military as saying that at current research and development levels, China will have the ability to build an aircraft carrier by 2010. Persistent calls for transparency from China have seemingly gone unanswered.
3) Will America’s leaders wake up when we find that a Chinese sub is stalking a U.S. carrier?
Clearly, the answer is no. In November, America was shocked to discover that a Chinese submarine had stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the Pacific and surfaced within firing range of the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk before being detected.
The Chinese plan to build 17 new diesel-powered and three new nuclear-powered submarines by the end of the decade, allowing them to expand their influence into the Pacific and beyond. And yet, we continue down a path upon which the United States’ current shipbuilding plan will result in a force structure below the minimum 48 submarine requirement for 14 years beginning in 2018, reaching a low of 40 in 2028-29. China will soon have more attack submarines than the United States with the addition of four Russian Kilo-class subs.
4) Will America choose to take a different course when we see China modeling its military aggression towards the United States in sophisticated computer simulation?
This has not yet been the catalyst. I recently had the opportunity to view a highly sophisticated computer simulation of a Chinese aerial attack on a U.S. carrier in the Pacific Ocean. The quality and design of that simulation rivals that of many simulations I have seen that are run by our own military. The problem is this simulation was part of a public website in Chinese that allowed thousands of registered gamers to compete in virtual scenarios against U.S. assets, depicted with remarkable accuracy down to the markings on the aircraft carriers and jet airplanes. It is not unreasonable to expect that the Chinese military is using similar models.
5) Will we change our course of action when America realizes that China’s sophisticated intelligence collection rivals that of any other foreign nation in its threat to the United States?
The answer again is no. Last year, we watched twice as major US counterintelligence failures – one stretching back two decades – were exposed to the world. Last year in a House Judiciary hearing, I questioned the Attorney General on the significance of these and other Chinese spy rings. Without hesitation, the Attorney General definitively stated that China was the number one espionage threat against this country.
6) Will America’s leaders rethink the direction our nation is taking when China secretly fires lasers to disable communications satellites? Will it make a difference when they actually shoot down a satellite?
Clearly, it has not. Only a month ago we watched as China destroyed an orbiting weather satellite signaling to the world that it had the capability to intentionally destroy our communications networks and certainly had the capability to unintentionally damage our assets in space with the considerable debris left behind.
While U.S. exports to China have grown by 415 percent over the last 15 years, China’s exports to the United States have grown by 1,600 percent. Today China holds the second largest amount of foreign U.S. debt, or $252 billion dollars, over 12% of all foreign investment in federal debt. And today China is stealing over $62 billion in intellectual property, money that is being used to purchase the most sophisticated weaponry in the world.
We cannot pretend any longer. We desperately lack a comprehensive governmental plan to address our future relationship with China.
I believe the critical solution to the problem is the creation of a National Strategic inter-agency staff to harness the collective energy and opportunities of our nation to prepare for the long-term impact of China’s rising power and influence around the world. This cadre of senior agency staff would be trained in a common lexicon, perhaps at one of the war colleges, and would be tasked with developing, modeling, coordinating and evaluating complex operations that cross agency lines.
Until America harnesses its collective strategic assets we will not truly be able to see the whole picture of our relationship with China. And, indeed, as the months pass, we will find ourselves with more powerful examples of how we have allowed America to be surprised by China and her intentions.